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ARK’s Guide To The SpaceX IPO
Apr 20, 2026
16 min read
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By ARK Invest
On April 1, 2026,1 SpaceX submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the first formal step toward what would be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in the history of capital markets. The company is targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion, a potential raise of up to $75 billion, and a Nasdaq listing as early as June 2026.2
For investors in the ARK Venture Fund, the news is no surprise. SpaceX has been the fund's largest holding for some time, representing 17.02% of net assets as of March 31, 2026. ARK has been building and refining its SpaceX investment thesis since the company's earliest days as a venture-backed entity, and the questions now flooding our investor inboxes are ones ARK is prepared to answer.
This guide addresses the most important of them.
SpaceX's confidential filing allows the company to submit its financials to the SEC for regulatory review before revealing them to the public. Under SEC rules, the public S-1 prospectus must be released at least 15 days before the company begins marketing shares to investors. That prospectus will be the first public window into SpaceX's full financial picture, including revenue figures, margin structure, the accounting treatment of the February 2026 xAI merger, defense contract disclosures, and the governance framework that will determine how much control Elon Musk retains post-IPO.
The IPO is internally codenamed "Project Apex" and managed by an unusually large syndicate of at least 21 banks.3 A June 2026 listing on the Nasdaq would make SpaceX the first of what Bloomberg has described as a potential trio of mega-IPOs,4 ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic, and would shatter by a factor of nearly three the previous record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion offering in 2019.
ARK's research is designed to answer this question, and the most robust and rigorous answer is that the valuation reflects a specific set of assumptions about the future, not the present.
At $1.75 trillion against an estimated ~$18.5 billion in 2025 revenue,5 SpaceX would trade at ~95x trailing revenue at the IPO price. There is no established public market comparable for a company at this scale trading at that multiple. The valuation reflects not what SpaceX earns today but what investors believe SpaceX will become, which requires understanding the company's individual business segments.
Starlink is the financial engine. SpaceX's satellite internet service has surpassed 10 million active subscribers globally as of early 2026,6 with 2026 revenue projected to exceed $20 billion.7 ARK's research has long identified Starlink as the fastest-growing telecom network in the world by customer and revenue onboarding, a view that has proven conservative. According to ARK’s research, the satellite connectivity market opportunity alone could approach $160 billion annually at scale, and Starlink is structurally positioned to capture a disproportionate share.
Launch services remain the foundation. SpaceX conducted 165 orbital launches in 2025 and has deployed ~85% of all spacecraft.8 ARK's research suggests that the company has reduced launch costs by ~95% since 2008—from roughly $15,600 per kilogram to under $1,000 per kilogram via Falcon 9. According to our research, a fully reusable Starship, targeting sub-$100 per kilogram, would represent another order-of-magnitude cost decline and unlock addressable markets that do not yet exist.
The xAI merger and orbital compute represent the most forward-looking dimension of the valuation. The February 2026 merger vertically integrated launch, communications, and AI model infrastructure under a single entity. ARK's research suggests that at sub-$100 per kilogram launch costs, orbital data centers could deliver compute at a cost ~25% lower than terrestrial alternatives without grid interconnection delays, permitting friction, or power scarcity. Musk has stated the company's ambition to launch 100 gigawatts of AI computing capacity per year.9 The thesis is early-stage, but it is the reason the combined entity commands a strategic premium that no sum-of-the-parts model fully captures.
ARK's research suggests that the $1.75 trillion IPO target is grounded in a plausible trajectory for each of SpaceX's core business segments and that the structural advantages underpinning that trajectory are durable. Starlink's adoption curve has exceeded expectations with profound consistency. Launch cost declines have followed a predictable path under Wright's Law.10 The xAI merger has added a strategic dimension to the platform that no comparable public company has even attempted to replicate. The public S-1 will provide the financial transparency that allows investors to pressure-test these assumptions rigorously, and ARK believes the fundamentals are strong enough to withstand that scrutiny.
ARK's investment framework is built on a simple premise: bold technological vision backed by demonstrable cost curve declines and accelerating adoption deserves to be taken seriously, even when consensus is skeptical.
By that standard, SpaceX's track record demands respect. Musk's goal of fully reusable rockets was considered unrealistic by the established aerospace industry for years. SpaceX achieved it. His vision for a global satellite internet network serving billions of underconnected people was considered nonviable financially. Starlink proved otherwise. The company has deployed a constellation of more than 10,000 Starlink satellites in low-Earth orbit, serves over 10 million subscribers, and reached cash flow11 breakeven in 2023.12
The more ambitious goals, including a factory on the moon and a network of one million orbital data centers, are further from proof of concept, but ARK's research does not require every goal to be achieved to support our investment thesis. The existing business segments, at their current trajectories, are plenty sufficient to justify a compelling investment case. The optionality embedded in the more ambitious goals represents upside that ARK’s current valuation models do not yet reflect, which we are currently updating.
In our view, Musk's goals are ambitious by any historical standard, and SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to compress the timelines that skeptics once assumed. Though not a guarantee, we believe that track record is a meaningful data point.
This is perhaps the most important question for investors evaluating the ARK Venture Fund, and the answer has several dimensions.
The value creation window has shifted. Private companies are remaining private even longer, the median age of a US company at IPO reaching 12 years in 2025, up from just 5 years in 1999.13 The companies generating the most attention today are creating enormous value while still private. Investors who wait for the public listing to access that value potentially miss the most significant period of appreciation.
The IPO price is not the price most investors will pay. When a company of SpaceX's scale goes public, the offering is allocated first to institutional investors. Retail investors who cannot access the IPO directly will buy in the open market, at whatever price supply and demand establish on day one, which frequently is well above the IPO price. History suggests that high-profile IPOs at premium valuations often experience significant post-listing volatility before settling at a long-term price level.
Investors in the ARK Venture Fund get venture capitalist-level access. The ARK Venture Fund holds SpaceX through direct-to-cap-table positions—not through secondary market intermediaries, special purpose vehicles (SPVs), or structured products that add fee layers and valuation premiums. Investors in ARK’s Venture fund have had exposure to SpaceX as the company's valuation appreciated from $350 billion in 2024, to $800 billion in 2025,14 to $1.25 trillion post-merger,15 to the current $1.75 trillion IPO target. That trajectory of value creation occurred in private markets entirely, and it is precisely the exposure the ARK Venture Fund was designed to provide.
ARK designed our Venture Fund with a clear view of the dynamics of this scenario and how it would affect our investors.
The ARK Venture Fund is an evergreen crossover fund, designed to hold companies across their full lifecycle, from early and late private stage through and beyond an IPO. SpaceX’s IPO is not a problem the fund needs to manage. The investment vehicle we built will work as intended.
If SpaceX completes its IPO, the Fund's position likely will be subject to a standard lockup period during which ARK’s shares in SpaceX cannot be sold. During that period, new capital flowing into the ARK Venture Fund from new investors would be deployed into other private companies, accelerating the rebalancing toward the Fund's long-term target of approximately 80% private exposure.
Once the lockup expires, the Fund would have full flexibility to manage the SpaceX position—trimming exposure as appropriate and redeploying capital into the next generation of private innovators across ARK's five core technology platforms: artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, multiomics, and blockchain technology.
Performance in any ARK Venture Fund holding, whether public or private, flows directly through to the fund's Net Asset Value (NAV). As SpaceX has grown in valuation while remaining private, that appreciation has been reflected in the fund's NAV in real time. Because of the crossover nature of the ARK Venture Fund, that relationship does not change at IPO. Should SpaceX list at a higher valuation, ARK Venture Fund investors would benefit accordingly, and the inverse is equally true. For long-term investors, IPOs represent meaningful liquidity events in the lifecycle of a company, and being positioned early, before public markets reprice the opportunity, is precisely the advantage the ARK Venture Fund was built to provide.
The ARK Venture Fund's portfolio today extends well beyond SpaceX. Current holdings include OpenAI, Anthropic, Neuralink, Databricks, Replit, Crusoe, Radiant, Boom, Lambda, Discord and more than 50 private companies in total. The SpaceX IPO, if completed, would be a significant milestone—that would create the capital and portfolio flexibility to continue building what ARK believes is the most compelling private innovation portfolio accessible to everyday investors.
Important Information
The SpaceX IPO filing is a confidential draft registration as of the date of this publication. Final valuation, timing, and structure have not been confirmed. The public S-1 prospectus has not yet been released. All figures referenced reflect publicly reported estimates and ARK's independent research. This is not investment advice.
Holdings subject to change. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security. For most up to date ARK Venture Fund holdings, please click here.
BEFORE INVESTING YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE FUND’S INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, RISKS, CHARGES AND EXPENSES. THIS AND OTHER INFORMATION IS IN THE PROSPECTUS, A COPY OF WHICH MAY BE OBTAINED HERE. PLEASE READ THE PROSPECTUS CAREFULLY BEFORE YOU INVEST.
There is no assurance that the Fund will meet its investment objective. The value of your investment in the Fund, as well as the amount of return you receive on your investment in the Fund, may fluctuate significantly. You may lose part or all of your investment in the Fund or your investment may not perform as well as other similar investments. Therefore, you should consider carefully the risks at the bottom of this page before investing in the Fund.
The ARK Venture Fund invests in private, early-stage companies that may be considered highly speculative. As a result, an investment in the Fund involves substantial risks including risks associated with uncertainty regarding the valuations of private company investments, high rate of failure among the early-stage companies, and restricted liquidity in securities of such companies.
The ARK Venture Fund is a continuously-offered, non-diversified, registered closed-end fund with limited liquidity. You should not expect to be able to sell your Shares in the ARK Venture Fund other than through the Fund’s repurchase policy, regardless of how the Fund performs. The Fund’s Shares will not be listed on any securities exchange, and the Fund does not expect a secondary market in the Shares to develop.
ARK Investment Management LLC is the investment adviser to the ARK Venture Fund.
Foreside Fund Services, LLC, distributor.
https://x.com/Starlink/status/2022446814591615013
https://www.quiltyspace.com/product-page/starlink-financial-overview-2025-2h-2026-forecast
https://brycetech.com/reports/report-documents/global-orbital-activity-2025/
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014416914550841727
Pioneered by Theodore Wright in 1936, Wright’s Law aims to provide a reliable framework for forecasting cost declines as a function of cumulative production. Specifically, it states that for every cumulative doubling of units produced, costs will fall by a constant percentage. https://www.ark-invest.com/wrights-law
Cash flow is the net amount of cash and cash equivalents moving in and out of a business, representing the liquidity and timing of cash receipts versus expenses.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1720098480037773658
Ritter, Jay R, University of Florida. “Initial Public Offerings: Median Age of IPOs Through 2025.” December 31, 2025. https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPOs-Age-of-Companies-Going-Public.pdf
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1997399963509150089
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ARK’s statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. ARK and its clients as well as its related persons may (but do not necessarily) have financial interests in securities or issuers that are discussed. Certain of the statements contained may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on ARK’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.
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